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Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 156-156.  
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Verification and correction of 2 m temperature merging product of CLDAS in
Lanzhou and Wuwei, Gansu Province
GUO Runxia, LIU Xinwei, WANG Yicheng, LIU Na, ZHOU Zihan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 146-155.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0146
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In order to make a further understand of the difference and representativeness between gridded merging real-time product
and observed data, the paper evaluated and corrected the CLDAS 2 m temperature merging product based on the observational data of automatic stations in Lanzhou and Wuwei region. The results are as follows: (1) The hourly temperature and daily minimum temperature products are lower than observations, and these errors decrease with the altitude going up below 2 500 m. The mean error of the daily maximum temperature product is negative around the altitude of 1 500 m, and changes to positive values above 1 500 m, then the positive mean error increases with the increase of altitude. The errors of daily maximum and minimum temperature are larger than those of hourly temperature, but their mean errors are all within 2 ℃. (2) The near gridding validation further shows that the diurnal change of
CLDAS hourly temperature is generally similar to observations in the daytime, while it is relatively 0.2 ℃ lower than observations at night. The daily average temperature of CLDAS merging product is generally lower about 1 ℃, and the negative deviation in Lanzhou urban area is relatively small. Spatial distribution of high temperature days above 30 ℃ of merging products is basically consistent with observations, but there are more actual high temperature days in Lanzhou urban area. (3) Both the linear regression and the decaying averaging method have a certain correction effect on CLDAS temperature merging products, and the latter has a better correction effect. The correction effect becomes better with the altitude increasing. To sum up, the CDLAS temperature merging products can better reflect the characteristics of actual temperature change in Lanzhou and Wuwei region, but its ability to reflect the daily maximum and minimum temperature is not as good as the hourly temperature, and the error is relatively large in complex terrain.

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Research on road icing warning model based on Logistic regression and
neural network in Gansu Province
BAO Lili, CHENG Peng, WANG Xiaoyong, HE Jinmei, YAN Xinyang, YIN Chun, LI Xiaoqin, ZHAO Wenjing
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 137-145.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0137
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In order to better carry out the road icing prediction and early warning services, the hourly observation data of traffic meteorological stations in the high incidence area of road icing in Gansu Province (the east of Wuwei, Gansu) were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of road icing, explore the correlation between road icing and meteorological factors, and construct the road icing warning model by using Logistic regression method and neural network algorithm. The results showed that road icing in Gansu Province occurred mainly in winter (from December to February of the following year), and the frequency of road icing was higher from 00:00 to 10:00 and from 22:00 to 23:00. Logistic regression model and neural network model had high prediction accuracy for non-icing events, with 91.9% and 96.2%, respectively. For the occurrence of icing events, the prediction accuracy of Logistic regression model was low, at 31.6%, while that of neural network model could reach 44.6%, indicating that the two models had certain indicative significance for road icing warning, and the prediction effect of neural network model was better than that of Logistic regression model.

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Verification and analysis of gust forecast of ECMWF fine grid model in Dalian area
WANG Lei, YANG Jingtai, BIAN Ruobin, SUI Yuxiu, SUN Yuecheng, ZHOU Lili, WEI Yuanyuan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 129-136.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0129
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The error test of gust forecast has a certain guiding significance for the refined forecast correction in practice, and provides a reference for how to eliminate the influence of the daily variation of error in the refined forecast. The 10 m gust and 10 m average wind forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) are selected from the fine grid for 3-72 h day by day from 2017 to 2019, and based on the real maximum wind data 3 hours by 3 hours of 9 national meteorological observation stations in Dalian area, the error test of forecast is analyzed. The results are as follows: According to the forecast error test based on the forecast and the actual situation, the mean error(ME)of the ECMWF fine grid forecast is 0.96 m·s-1, which indicates that the forecast is larger on the whole. However, the statistical conclusions of the forecast errors of the two classifications are inconsistent for each wind level, and the test according to the forecast wind level is more consistent with the actual forecast work based on the model forecast. According to the statistical test of the forecast, the forecast errors of each wind direction, each wind level and each station are obviously different. The larger the wind level is, the greater the degree of forecast bias is, and wind direction also shows the trend of error increasing with
wind level increase. The average error of gust forecast has obvious daily variation, with the largest error around 08:00 and the smallest error around 20:00, which is mainly caused by the daily variation of the average error of 10 m average wind prediction. The correlation coefficients between all forecast cases and the observations for each predictive aging are above 0.7, and when it comes to each wind level and wind direction, the correlation of each wind direction is good, but the correlation of each wind level is significantly reduced, and the reliability of the wind forecast of the magnitude 8 and above is decreased greatly.

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Research on multi-model integrated precipitation forecast based on feed forward
neural network
ZHU Wengang, SHENG Chunyan, FAN Sudan, RONG Yanmin, QU Meihui
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 117-128.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0117
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 In order to improve the accuracy of quantitative precipitation forecasting in Shandong Province, the deep feedforward neural network (DFNN) and the optimal threat score (TS) weight ensemble method for precipitation grading were used to study the multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting. Four groups of DFNN (ES, EM, SM, ESM) deep learning models were obtained by using the 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecast of Global Numerical Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Shanghai Numerical Prediction Model System of the China Meteorological Administration and the Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System of the China Meteorological Administration from April to September 2019 for supervised training, and the Mul-OTS (Multi-mode Optimal Threat Score) integrated model was established by using the optimal TS weight integration method of multi-model precipitation classification. The down-scale grid prediction was made by using the accumulated precipitation of each model for 24 h from April to September 2020, and the comparison test and case analysis of five integrated schemes were carried out. The results show that the average relative error was reduced by the five integrated schemes with different starting time and lead times. The ESM scheme was the best, and the Mul-OTS scheme was the worst. All the four groups of DFNN schemes improved the accuracy of sunny and rainy prediction, the ESM scheme was the best, and the Mul-OTS scheme was lower than the model forecast. The four groups of DFNN schemes all improved the TS and ETS scores of each precipitation grade, and the improvement amplitude of weak precipitation was greater than that of strong precipitation. The Mul-OTS scheme was a negative technique for the correction of small precipitation levels, and the correction effect was better for the correction of large precipitation levels, but it was still inferior to the ESM  scheme. A case study found that the ESM scheme for precipitation intensity and fall area forecast was superior to other integrated schemes. Therefore, the optimal ESM scheme was adopted to establish a quantitative precipitation grid forecasting system, which provides important support for intelligent grid forecasting.

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Comparative analysis of two rainstorm cases in Longnan of Gansu Province
SHI Yanzhao, LIU Weicheng, FU Zhao, FU Zhengxu, XU Lili, ZHENG Xin
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 107-116.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0107
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In August 2017, there were torrential rains in Longnan, Gansu Province. The 24-hour precipitation at the Li County and
Wudu weather stations broke through the historical extreme values, with obvious extremes and localities. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, radar data and ground observation data, a comparative analysis of two heavy rain cases that occurred in Longnan, Gansu Province from 6 to 7 and from 19 to 20 August 2017 are carried out. The circulation background and the radar reflectivity factor, radial velocity and physical quantity characteristics of the heavy rainfall processes of the two cases are discussed emphatically. The results show that the two rainstorms all occurred at the intersection between the northerly airflow in the westerly trough and the southerly warm and humid airflow in the middle-lower layer, but the main impact systems and triggering conditions are different. The radar echo shows from August 6 to 7, the convective system caused by the cold shear line is stronger, with higher reflectivity factor, lower central height, higher precipitation rate and shorter duration. The reflectivity factor of precipitation in warm region from August 19 to 20 is lower, and its central height is higher, and the precipitation rate is smaller, and the precipitation process maintained for longer time.

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Characteristic analysis of early spring hail in Chengdu based on S-band polarization radar
ZHOU Cong, ZHANG Tao, XIA Xin, ZHANG Kui
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 95-106.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0095
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 In order to better carry out the monitoring, forecasting and early warning of hail weather in Chengdu, the characteristics of
dual-polarization parameters of hail in early spring in Chengdu were studied by using the S-band dual-polarization radar detection of Chengdu, combined with the regional automatic weather station and conventional observation data. The fine structure of hail cloud was analyzed and compared with the short-term heavy precipitation in early spring of the same year. The results show that under the dynamic condition of strong ascending motion formed by the coupling of the high and lower-level jets, the high-level cold advection combined with the surface cold air jointly triggered the hail weather of Chengdu “3·16”. At the maturity stage, the central reflectivity factor (ZH) of hail cloud was more than 70 dBZ and there were obvious overhanging strong echo. Besides, the differential reflectivity (ZDR) and correlation coefficient (CC) of hail cloud were concentrated in –2–1 dB and 0.8–0.95, respectively, accompanied by specific differential phase shift rate (KDP) hole and CC valley structure in front of the cloud, and there was a typical ZDR column near strong updraft. With the
weakening of the ascending motion, the ZDR large value area decreases with distance appeares in front of hail cloud, while CC shows increasing trend. Compared to hail cloud, the ZH of heavy precipitation convective cloud was smaller, while the ZDR and CC were significantly larger, and there was no overhanging strong echo and obvious ZDR column in front of the convective cloud.

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Analysis about the rear inflow of a warm zone squall line causing strong winds
SANG Minghui, ZHU Li, SHEN Xiaoling, ZHANG Chunyan, ZUO Jun
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 84-94.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0084
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A squall line with a long life is very likely to cause a wide range of catastrophic gale weather. The study of its structure and
maintenance mechanism is of great reference significance to the forecast of catastrophic gale weather. The rear inflow of a warm zone squall line that caused strong gale in Jiangnan area on March 4, 2018 was analyzed by using the ground observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis) reanalysis and high-resolution model simulation results, and the maintenance mechanism of the squall line was discussed. The results show that the squall line occurred in a warm environment in front of the south branch trough with the same southwesterly airflow in upper and lower layers. The environment was characterized by moderate to strong vertical shear of 0–6 km, high convective effective potential energy, and obvious dry areas in the middle layer and near the surface. The 3 h negative barotropic anomaly index has
a good indication in this process. The squall line showed a “TS” structure, but the stratus area was relatively narrow. The reflectivity factor kernel was located in the downdraft below the mid-level radial convergence. The results of the model simulation show that the rear inflow and downdraft forced counterclockwise and clockwise vertical circulation in the interior and rear of the system, respectively, which constituted the most important structural characteristics of the squall line. The rear inflow was close to the rear edge of the system and located in the middle troposphere, which caused the updraft to change from inclined to vertical direction. After that, the rear inflow moved away from the system and merged with the lower outflow to continuously lift the warm and moist air. The synergistic effect of the rear inflow and the front inflow made the squall line maintain for a longer time.

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Simulation of a multi-phase precipitation process over Yungui-Huanan quasi-stationary
front in winter
YANG Qi, ZHANG Haipeng, WU Jianrong, LI Hao, ZENG Huarong, LU Zhengqi
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 75-83.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0075
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The presence of the Yungui-Huanan quasi-stationary front make its north region an ideal platform for studying different pre⁃
cipitation phase across the rain-snow transition zone. The impact of the temperature the subfreezing layer and the activation temperature of the ice core on the formation of different precipitation phases were qualitatively explored based on the analyses of the meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters over a southern freezing weather event from January 25 to 27, 2018. The precipitation phase, the freezingrain zone, and the total amount of freezing rain in this case were simulated as well by the use of the WRF model coupling the BTC precipitation phase diagnosis parameterization scheme. The results show that a “cold-warm-cold” vertical temperature structure formed by the quasi-stationary fronts across the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Southern Ridge region is favorable for the occurrence of multi-phase precipitation. The spatial distribution of different precipitation phase drop zones can be well simulated by the WRF model coupled with the BTC parameterization scheme, showing good agreement with observations, but the false rate for ice particles is relatively high. The vertical distribution characteristics of temperature, relative humidity and hydrometeors during the multi-phase precipitation simulated by WRF model are analyzed. The initial phase of hydrometeors in the cloud is liquid. Under the premise of the existence of highaltitude inversion layer, the ice core activation temperature in the subfreezing layer is the critical index to distinguish freezing rain and ice particles and has a clear physical mechanism. The accuracy of freezing rain prediction is improved by 13% after by substituting the ice core activation temperature of the subfreezing layer for the discrimination of freezing rain and ice particles in the BTC scheme, which indicates the feasibility of the use of the ice core activation temperature in the subfreezing layer to determine freezing rain.


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Prediction of the future temperature in Qinghai Lake
DONG Jingwei, WEN Lijuan, YU Tao, YANG Yongshun, LUO Ying, WANG Mengxiao, NIU Ruijia
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 64-74.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0064
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 Qinghai Lake plays an important role in the ecological security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and it is very important to
deeply understand the characteristics of future lake surface temperature changes of Qinghai Lake. We evaluated the conventional meteorological data of three global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) through site observations and reanalysis data. Freshwater Lake Model (FLake) was evaluated by using the observed data and MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) surface temperature data to predict the evolution trend of lake temperature under four different discharge scenarios (SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585)in the future, and to elucidate the driving mechanism of lake surface temperature change and its potential impact on the living environment of Gymnocyprisprzewalskii. The results are as follows:(1) The historical meteorological data of the reanalysis data and the CMIP6 multi-model collection are superior to the single model. From 2015 to 2100, the average annual lake
surface temperature of Qinghai Lake continued to rise under four scenarios. Under SSP126 scenarios, the warming rate after 2050 is lower than that in the historical period, while under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the warming rate before and after 2050 is higher than that in the historical period, in which air temperature is the main driving factor of lake surface temperature. (2)In the future different periods, the monthly and daily maximum lake surface temperature in different stages will appear in August, and in the recent period (2020-2041), there is little difference among different scenarios. In the middle period (2041-2080), the differences between the scenarios gradually increased. In the long run (2081-2100), the average daily lake surface temperature in August basically exceeded 20.00 ℃, and the maximum daily temperature even reached 23.31 ℃, Gymnocyprisprzewalskii would be at a high risk.

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Characteristics of 10–20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021
HAN Shiru, CHE Shaojing, YU Changwen, MA Guidong
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 54-63.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0054
Abstract76)      PDF(pc) (20762KB)(132)    PDF(mobile) (20762KB)(9)    Save
 It is important to study the characteristics of precipitation anomaly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to improve the understanding and prediction ability of precipitation in the autumn extended period. In recent years, the phenomenon of“ summer rain in autumn” has occurred frequently in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, showing the characteristics of precipitation intensity increase and more extreme precipitation in autumn. The autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 was the most since 1981, and the precipitation at many stations in October of 2021 broke the historical extreme values. Based on daily precipitation data in autumn and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Morlet wavelet analysis and Lanczos filtering methods were used to analyze the low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation and the evolution of atmospheric low-frequency circulation characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 in order to explore its abnormal characteristics. The results show that the main low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 is 10-20 days, and the variance of low-frequency oscillation is 44%. The low frequency circulation at 500 hPa during the low frequency precipitation activity period shows that there is convergence movement before the low-pressure anomaly, which is conducive to the strengthening of the low-level anomaly cyclone and upward movement. During the low frequency precipitation activity period, an abnormal cyclone moves northward from the South China Sea to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which was conducive to the transport of warm and humid air from the south to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The intensity of water vapor transport will affect the intensity of precipitation process. The stronger the intensity of water vapor transport is, the greater the intensity of precipitation is.

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Variation characteristics of agricultural boundary temperature in main agricultural regions
in basins of the Brahmaputra River and its two tributaries in Xizang from 1981 to 2022
GUO Yinan, HUANG Zhicheng, DU Jun, XU Wei
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 47-53.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0047
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The mean daily temperature of 10 ℃ is the lower limit temperature for the suitable growth of thermophilic crop. The ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature (ATT10) is one of the important indexes to measure the heat resources in the main agricultural regions of the Brahmaputra River and its two tributaries over Xizang (BRTX). Based on the daily average temperature data of 9 meteorological stations in BRTX from 1981 to 2022, the linear trend estimation, Pearson coefficient, Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis method were used to analyze climate change characteristics of ≥10 ℃ boundary temperature (BT10). The results are as follows: (1) With the increase of altitude, the BT10 showed obvious vertical zonal characteristics in the main agricultural regions of BRTX, including the delay of initial date, the advance of the last day, the decrease of duration days and the ATT10. (2) From 1981 to 2022, the initial date of BT10 was advanced by -2.53 d·(10 a)-1, and the final date delayed with a rate of 3.33 d·(10 a)-1, the duration days and ATT10 significantly increased with a rate of 5.87 d·(10 a)-1 and 106.19 °C·d·(10 a)-1, respectively. Compared with the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the magnitude of BT10 change was significantly larger. (3) The 1980s was the decade with the latest initial date, the earliest final date, the shortest duration days and the lowest ATT10 in the past 40 years, while the 21st century was the opposite. (4) The H indexes of the BT10 were all greater than 0.65, indicating that in the future the BT10 will maintain a strong persistence of earlier initial day, later final day, prolonged duration days and increased ATT10. The mutation change of the initial date of BT10 occurred in the early 1990s, while the abrupt change of the final date, duration days and ATT10 occurred in the first decade of the 21st century.

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Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 39-46.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0039
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Analysis of climatic resources and drought characteristics during rice growth stages with
different sowing dates in Chengdu plain:A case study of Guanghan
LIAO Chengrui1,3, CHEN Yongren2, XIAO Tiangui3
(1. Guanghan Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province, Guanghan 618300, Sichuan, China;
2. Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;
3. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China)
Abstract: As a major rice-producing area in Southwest China, the Chengdu Plain has faced increasingly severe drought problems in recent years. In order to determine the most suitable sowing date for rice in this region and improve the drought resistance, this paper takes Guanghan area as an example, and adopts the climate tendency rate method to analyze the characteristics of climate resources at the rice growth stages for different sowing dates from 1991 to 2020, and evaluates the degree of drought at different growth stages of rice at growth stages by using the Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI). The results show that the climatic characteristics of rice for different sowing dates in the study area over the past 30 years showed a trend of decreasing sunshine, increasing mean daily temperature and increasing precipitation. With the delay in sowing, the number of sunshine during the whole life cycle of rice decreased, and the average daily temperature and precipitation both increased. The CWDI values gradually decreased with rice development, and the water deficit rate was higher at the first and middle stages for each sowing date. Light and moderate drought, followed by severe drought, and exceptional drought were observed during the growing stages of rice for different sowing dates. From late March to early April was the most suitable period for rice sowing in the study area, and drought-resistant varieties should be selected for sowing in early and mid-March, while sowing in mid-to late-April people should guard against the effects of severe drought on the water demand period of the crop.

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Study on monitoring method of agricultural drought in Gansu Province based on
Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index
SHA Sha, WANG Lijuan, WANG Xiaoping, HU Die, ZHANG Liang
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 27-38.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0027
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Improving the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) and clarifying the agricultural drought grade threshold of
TVDI is of great significance for improving the ability of TVDI to monitor agricultural drought. Based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) remote sensing data in the past 19 years, several feature spaces are constructed by using the single-time and multi-time methods, including NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) -LST (Land Surface Temperature), EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) -LST, RVI (Ratio Vegetation Index) - LST, and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) -LST. The calculation methods of TVDI are discussed, the applicability of TVDI for agricultural drought monitoring in Gansu Province is analyzed, and classification standards for summer TVDI agricultural drought in Gansu Province are clarified. The research results are as follows: 1) The TVDI calculated from the SAVI-LST feature space is more suitable for agricultural drought monitoring in Gansu Province. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of its fitting relative soil moisture (RSM) decreased by 1%–5% compared with the RMSE and MAE of RSM fitted by NDVI-LST feature space TVDI for RSM, which is used more commonly. 2) TVDI is suitable for agricultural drought monitoring at shallow depths of 10 and 20 cm in non-arid areas such as semi-arid, semi-humid and humid areas in
Gansu Province in summer. The RMSE and MAE are approximately 15.6% and 12.6%, and the fitting errors in humid areas are the least, and they are less in semi-humid areas than in semi-arid areas they are the largest. 3) Compared to TVDI drought grades divided by 0.2 intervals and TVDI with uncertain classification criteria , the TVDI agricultural drought grade determined by the linear relationship between TVDI and RSM is more conducive to improving the accuracy of TVDI monitoring agricultural drought.

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Identification and characteristic analysis of compound drought and heat wave
event in Central Asia
YANG Yingjie, CAO Qian, SHUI Yue
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 19-26.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0019
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 The compound drought and heat wave has been paid more and more attention and the combined effect is far more than ordinary drought events. The characteristic of the events was explored in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020, based on hourly temperature data and monthly potential evapotranspiration data of the Land Component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and daily multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation data. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and daily maximum temperature were calculated to identify the events. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The spatial distribution of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia was not concentrated. The regions with high frequency of the events in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s were mainly distributed in the southeast,north, northwest and west, respectively. (2) In terms of temporal distribution, the general trend of the events had changed from large fluctuation to small fluctuation, and likely to remain stable after 2020. (3) Studying the four typical years of 1984, 1993, 2010 and 2020, it is concluded that the compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia were mainly concentrated in the southeast in 1984, sporadic occurrences in a few scattered regions in 1993, in the north in 2010 and in the west in 2020.

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Cause analysis of flood-drought alternation event in July 2022 in arid and semi-arid region
of Inner Mongolia
LIU Wei, ZHAO Yanli, GAO Jing, LI Linhui, WANG Huimin
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 11-18.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0011
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The rainfall in July of 2022 in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia was obviously less and showed a phased
characteristic of more in the early stage and less in the late stage. The analysis of circulation distribution and configuration in different stages is of great significance for further improving precipitation forecast ability in flood season in this region. Daily precipitation of 116 national meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia, 130 climate indexes from the National Climate Center, daily reanalysis data from National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Science (NCEP/NCAR) and monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were used to analyze the causes of the flooddrought transition event in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia in July 2022. The results are as follows: (1) In July 2022, the rainfall in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia was seriously less, which was the least in the same period since 1991 in this region, and the meteorological drought was relatively serious. (2) From July 1 to 11, the precipitation was relatively more, the cold air path was northward and the intensity was weak, the Western Pacific Subtropical high was weak and its location was northward and
westward, and the warm and cold air intermingled in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia. In addition, the position of upper westerly jet was northward during this period, and the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia were located in the south of the jet axis, which was conducive to upper level divergence and the development of upward movement. While from July 12 to 31, the precipitation was obviously less, the meridian of circulation increased, the cold air activity path was more southerly and the intensity increased, the Western Pacific subtropical high was obviously stronger and the location was southward, which was not conducive to water  vapor transport. In addition, the location of upper westerly jet was southward, and the central and western part of Inner Mongolia was located in the north of the jet axis, which was not conducive to upper level divergence and the development of upward movement. The stronger disturbance of the upper westerly jet in mid and late July was conducive to stimulating the meridional teleconnection wave train from East Asia to the Northwest Pacific, which led to the position of the Western Pacific subtropical high southward and less precipitation. (3) The abnormal SST from the Sea of Japan to the northwest of the North Pacific was one of the important external forcing signals that affect the amount of precipitation in central and western regions of Inner Mongolia. In July 2022, the SST in the region was abnormally high, and the cyclonic circulation triggered by the abnormal SST over the region weakened the meridional transport of warm and humid water vapor in the south, which was one of the reasons for the change of precipitation from flood to drought in central and western regions of Inner Mongolia.
 

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Research progress and prospect on non-precipitition water in arid and semi-arid area
WANG Sheng, ZHANG Qiang, ZHANG Liang, WANG Xing, DU Haoling, ZENG Jian, WEN Xiaomei
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 1-10.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0001
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 The warming trend of the global climate system continues, and the impact on natural ecosystems and water resources continues to rise, aggravating the already fragile global water resources. At this background, as a potential water resource, non-precipitation water (NPW) in arid area plays an important role in the maintenance of ecosystem and land surface water balance in arid area. Therefore, based on the present results of international research on NPW, the development process of NPW is summarized. The observation methods, variation characteristics, formation mechanism and the contribution of NPW to land surface water balance and its effects on crops in arid areas of Northwest China were reviewed. Finally, on the basis of combining the international frontiers, hot issues and development trends of NPW research, the shortcomings and problems of current NPW research are analyzed scientifically. It is pointed out that the study of NPW should focus on further revealing the complex formation mechanism of NPW on land surface, and strengthen the cognition of NPW in different climatic regions and different underlying surfaces. Breakthroughs have been made in key scientific issues such as the establishment of a specially targeted land surface NPW observation system, the development of the parameterization of land surface NPW in the numerical model, and the research and development of technical standards for the development and utilizationof land surface NPW.
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Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 0-0.  
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Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 0-0.  
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Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (1): 0-0.  
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Applicability evaluation of satellite-derived precipitation products in the torrential heavy rainfall event in East Gansu in July 2022
WANG Yicheng, LIU Weicheng, SONG Xingyu, ZHANG Wenguang
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 997-1007.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0997
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Based on the rainfall station observations and the products of Multi-source Merged Precipitation Analysis System of China Meteorological Administration (CMPAS), eight kinds of satellite-based precipitation products (FY-4A, CMOPRH-RT, IMERG-Early, IMERG-Late, GSMaP-Now, GSMaP-Gauge, PERSIANN-Now, PERSIANN-CCS) are comprehensively evaluated during the recordbreaking extremely heavy precipitation process in East Gansu on July 15, 2022 by using quantitative analysis, classification and struc⁃ tural similarity methods. The results show that eight kinds of satellite-based precipitation products basically reflect the spatial distribu⁃ tion characteristics of precipitation with more in the central and eastern regions and less in the northwest. Except for the GSMaP-Now product, the other seven satellite-based precipitation products all underestimate the precipitation at the center of the rainstorm. The eight kinds of satellite-based precipitation products have a good ability to describe the peak value of heavy precipitation, and both peak stages of the heavy precipitation process are reflected, but all of them seriously underestimate the magnitude of heavy rainfall and above. For precipitation of different magnitudes, the GSMaP-Gauge is the best for estimating precipitation of magnitude below torrential rain, while the CMOPRH-RT is the best for heavy rain and above, and all products cannot correctly hit the precipitation of torrential heavy rainfall. In terms of the structural similarity index, the CMOPRH-RT product can best represent the structural distribution of the precipitation process from three aspects of total precipitation, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation morphological distribution. In summary, for this precipitation event, the CMOPRH-RT precipitation product had the best performance in all aspects.

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Evaluation of the ability of BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model in simulating precipitation and temperature in East Asia
LI Shuping , QUAN Wenjie, WANG Zheng, CHEN Yizhuo, SU Tao , YAN Pengcheng
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 984-996.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0984
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The global climate model BCC-CSM2-MR (Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution) in⁃ dependently developed by the National (Beijing) Climate Center, which has participated in the Climate Model Interomparison Project Phase 6. Based on the BCC-CSM1.1m version, the BCC-CSM2-MR model is optimized in aspects of atmospheric radiation transport scheme, deep convection processes and gravity wave drag. Therefore, the improvement of the model’s ability to simulate precipitation and temperature in East Asia needs further assessment. Utilizing gridded observational datasets and station observations in China, the paper thoroughly compares the performances of BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-CSM1.1m in simulating seasonal mean precipitation (tem⁃ perature) and daily precipitation (temperature) extremes in East Asia. The results are as follows: (1) Compared with the BCC-CSM1.1m, the BCC-CSM2-MR improves the model performance in simulating seasonal mean precipitation in most sub-regions of East Asia, espe⁃ cially for summer precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau. In particular, the model can better reproduce the annual cycle of precipitation in southeastern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan. (2) The ability of the BCC-CSM2-MR to simulate the seasonal mean temperature in East Asia has not been improved significantly, and the simulated biases of monthly temperature change in most sub-regions of East Asia are greater than those of the BCC-CSM1.1m. (3) In terms of daily extreme precipitation (temperature), the simulation ability of the BCC-CSM2-MR is obviously better than that of the BCC-CSM1.1m, which significantly improves the simulation ability of daily extreme precipitation (temperature) in southeast China. Overall, the improvement of the BCC-CSM2-MR in deep convection process parameter scheme is beneficial to the simulation of precipitation in East Asia.

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A short-time heavy precipitation process triggered by a cold front in the Hanjiang Basin of southern Shaanxi and its precipitation forecast verification
XIAO Yiqing , MA Yongyong , CHEN Xiaoting , AN Dawei , HUANG Shaoni
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 972-983.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0972
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It is difficult to forecast heavy precipitation under complex terrain in mountainous areas, which formation mechanism is complicated, and often brings serious geological disasters. Based on conventional observation data, European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data, FY-4A satellite cloud imagery, Doppler radar data and forecast products from various models, the factors contributing and model forecasting performance of local short-time heavy precipitation process in the Hanjiang Basin of southern Shaanxi from the night on 3 to the early morning on 4 June 2022 were examined and analyzed. The results are as follows:(1) This process is a short-time heavy precipitation triggered by the front in the Hanjiang Basin of southern Shaanxi. Due to shallow convection instability and weak vertical wind shear, the heavy precipitation exhibited localized characteristics with significant intensity. The accumulated precipitation in 12 hours exceeds 50 mm in many stations, with a maximum of 104. 8 mm. (2) The two ends of the front are blocked by the topography and move slowly and are difficult to cross the high mountains. Consequently, convection is continuously triggered within the basin, generating heavy precipitation, and the secondary circulation formed in the surface layer of the basin can enhance convective activity. (3) A cold pool formed in the front of front continuously triggers the backward propagation of new convective cells within the basin to form a train effect. Meanwhile, the intense radar reflectivity factor, exceeding 50 dBZ, is located below the 0 ℃ isotherm level, which has high precipitation efficiency and prolonged duration, thus bringing a short-time heavy precipitation with a maximum of 62. 6 mm·h-1 . (4) Global models displayed limited capability in forecasting this process, while mesoscale regional models can reflect the characteristics of frontal convection and precipitation, especially CMA-TRAM and CMA-GD models can reflect the triggering and development trend of local strong convection well. However, the intensity and organization of the convective system induced by the frontal cold pool of the front still have substantial forecast deviations.

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Research progress on tourism climate indices and human comfort
SONG Xuping , LUO Qiyin , HAN Yunze , HU Yue , WANG Rui , MA Pan , WANG Shigong
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 961-971.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0961
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The TCIs (tourism climate indices) are applications of the human comfort in climate health tourism. TCIs aim to characterize the climate and environmental status of tourist destinations and provide a comprehensive measure of tourists’ climatic well-being. In this study, the Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were searched for visualization analysis, explained the connotation of the TCIs and human comfort index, summarized the historical evolution of TCIs and the human comfort index, and discussed the existing problems and countermeasures of TCIs researches. In order to provide theoretical support for the indepth research and sustainable development of TCIs in the future. The results are as follows: (1) The English studies were more concerned with tourism satisfaction and competitiveness, whereas the Chinese studies were more concerned with human comfort, climate comfort, and climate tourism. (2) Human comfort indices were primarily composed of meteorological factors and clothing insulation, which aims to reflect the human body's feeling of environmental comfort. The TCIs not only covers meteorological factors and aesthetic factors, but also considers health factors such as air quality and oxygen content, aiming to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of tourism activities and the effect of climate health of travelers.

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The response of influenza-like illnesses to short-term weather variability intensity and risk early warning
ZHAO Xiaofang , FANG Sida, LEI Xiaomei, LIU Min, YU Xiao, XU Hui
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 952-960.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0952
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Exploring the quantitative impact of short-term weather variability intensity (SWVI) on influenza incidence in Hubei Prov⁃ ince is of significant importance for conducting early risk warning and formulating prevention policies. Based on the influenza inci⁃ dence data and meteorological station observation, an index of SWVI has been built, which can measure the cumulative changes over a short-term in minimum temperature between two consecutive weeks. Based on the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM), the rela⁃ tion between SWVI index and influenza incidence risk was evaluated and a set of method for level classification of influenza incidence risk was developed. The results show that the intra-annual variation of number of Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) exhibited bimodal struc⁃ ture, with the first peak occurring in autumn and winter, and the second peak appearing in early summer months. The SWVI index also exhibited a bimodal distribution, but the peak occurring earlier than the peak of ILI. From November to March of the following year, SWVI index had a strong indicative significance for the change of ILI morbidity. In this period, when SWVI reaches 8.0 ℃, the cumula tive relative risk (RR) of ILI incidence at the same period and the next week was 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 1.087-1.250). In addition, SWVI index also had an indirect effect on the risk of ILI with a lag of 4-9 weeks, which was less affected than the immediate effect, but lasted longer. Using the percentile method and the relationship model between the SWVI index and the ILI incidence risk, a set of influenza risk early warning method was established. When the SWVI index was greater than or equal to 8.0 ℃, the influenza incidence reached high risk level

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Numerical prediction ability analysis of extended period for a typical severe sandstorm process in northern China
LI Danhua, ZHANG Qiang, LU Guoyang, LIU Liwei, REN Yulong, BAI Bing, YANG Yang, DUAN Bolong, HUANG Pengcheng
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 944-951.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2023)-06-0944
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Sandstorm is a serious natural disaster in north China. It is of great significance to carry out relevant research to improve the forecast level of this kind of catastrophic weather. Based on the RegCM-dust model, an extended period numerical prediction analysis of a typical severe sandstorm process in north China is conducted, and the results are compared with NCEP reanalysis data and other analysis results. The results show that the regions with high sediment discharge simulated by the model are mainly located in southern Xinjiang, Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia. The model has a certain forecasting ability for 10 m wind speed, but the simulated wind speed is smaller than the reanalysis data. The changes of dust column content and total sedimentation simulated by the model can reflect the characteristics of the dust storm weather process. The simulated sand-dust mixing ratio has a certain correspondence with the urban pollution index, which indicates that the model has certain forecasting ability for the pollution weather caused by sand-dust.

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A study on particle characteristics of generating cells in stratiform-cumulus mixed cloud based on convolution neural network
YUAN Yahan, WANG Shuo, WANG Wenqing, ZHANG Dianguo , HU Xiangfeng , ZHANG Rong , WEI Haiwen, MENG Jin, FENGYong
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 933-943.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2023)-06-0933
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Arranging 3 years’ worth of airborne precipitation particle images to construct a precipitation particle image dataset in Shan⁃ dong Province. Building a precipitation particle recognition model based on EfficientNet convolutional neural network, named PREN (Precipitation particle Recognition model based on EfficientNet convolutional neural Network).The accuracy rate is 98%, and the multimodel and multi-index evaluation and comparison experiments verify that PREN demonstrates excellent robustness and generalization ability. Taking typical stratiform-cumulus mixed cloud precipitation as two examples (total 3 time periods), PREN is applied to the par⁃ ticle characteristics analysis of generating cells. Combined with airborne Ka-band cloud radar and DMT particle measurement system, an analysis conducted on the shape proportion of precipitation particles inside and outside the generating cells and indifferent intensity generating cells, revealing the precipitation mechanism. The results show that the shapes of precipitation particles in the generating cells are mainly spherical, needle-like, irregular and columnar. Precipitation particles outside the generating cells are mostly spherical and needle-like. The cloud microphysical parameters in the generating cells with different intensities vary. The proportion of graupel and needle particles in the precipitation maturity stage is higher than that in the dissipation stage. The average chord length of precipi⁃ tation particles in the maturity stage is 415 µm. While the average chord length of particles in dissipation stage is 367 µm. The particles on the top of generating cells are mainly spherical and hexagonal, primarily growing through the process of deposition. The ratio of irregular particles and columnar particles in the 0 ℃ are increasing, and the melting process and dynamic conditions favor aggregation and growth, forming irregular particles, while columns mainly originate from the upper levels of the atmosphere.

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YU Haohui, ZHOU Changyan, CHEN Chao, CHEN Yongren
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 923-932.  
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Analysis of circulation and impact of extreme weather processes is the basis of refined disaster prevention and mitigation services. Based on meteorological observation data, reanalysis data and satellite data, the characteristics, atmospheric circulation background and its main impacts of the extreme heatwave event in the Sichuan Basin from 25 July to 9 August 2021 are analyzed. During this heatwave event, temperatures of 13 national meteorological stations broke the historical maximum temperature records, and high temperature days reached 14 days at six stations. The heatwave center was located in the central and southern parts of the Sichuan Basin, and the process intensity reached its peak in early August, and the daily maximum temperature (42.4 ℃) appeared at Xingwen station in Yibin. The analysis shows that the atmospheric circulation background of this heatwave is different from that of most previous heatwave processes, the direct role of the western Pacific subtropical high (subtropical high) during this process is not obvious, and the typhoon activity in the southeast coast prevents the westward extension of the subtropical high. The peripheral flow of the subtropical high is conducive to the maintenance of the anticyclonic system over the basin, and makes it difficult for water vapor from the south to reach the basin, which plays an important role in the development and maintenance of high temperature and heatwave. During this heatwave process, the average high temperature days in Chengdu reached 8.36 days and the heat island effect is significant. The impact of heatwave and urban heat islands effect on mega-cities like Chengdu worths attention.

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Characteristics and cause analysis of extreme and persistent drought in summer, autumn and winter in 2022/2023 in Hunan Province
XIE Ao, LUO Boliang DENG Jianbo, GAO Xiaxia
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 910-922.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2023)-06-0910
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Hunan is a region prone to drought disasters. Conducting an analysis of the characteristics and causes of drought events is of great practical significance for improving the monitoring and prediction level of drought disasters in Hunan and reducing disaster losses. Based on daily precipitation data from ground observation stations and reanalysis data, the characteristics and causes of persistent extreme drought events that occurred in Hunan in the summer, autumn and winter of 2022/2023 are analyzed. The results indicate that the continuous drought in the summer, autumn and winter of 2022/2023 in Hunan has the characteristics of significantly less precipitation (The average accumulated precipitation in the whole province was the least in the same period since 1961) and a long duration (201 days). And in the summer of 2022, there was also a rare extremely high temperature heatwave throughout the entire Yangtze River basin, with multiple indicators such as average temperature and high temperature days in Hunan reaching historical extremes since 1961, which had a serious impact on industrial and agricultural production and people’s lives in Hunan. The ongoing drought event in summer, autumn and winter is closely related to sea surface temperature and circulation anomalies. In the early spring, the La Niña event and the negative phase mode of the Indian Ocean dipole led to the enhancement of the Walker circulation, and the west Pacific subtropical high (referred to as the “WPSH”) strengthened and extended westward and uplifted northward. From August to November 2022, the WPSH extended westward to 105°E, and the Hunan region was controlled by it, the prevailing downdraft led to the development of drought in summer and autumn in Hunan. From December 2022 to early February 2023, the WPSH was weaker compared to the same period in previous years, and the East Asian trough was strengthened and its location was east of Hunan, making it difficult to guide cold air southward to affect Hunan. The Indian-Myanmar trough was weaker, which was not conducive to the development of southwest airflow in front of the trough. The water vapor transport over Hunan region was hindered, leading to sustained drought in winter in Hunan.
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Drought and disaster variation characteristics in Guizhou based on Meteorological Drought Composite Index
XU Dan, LONG Li, ZHANG Donghai, REN Manlin, CHEN Juan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (6): 897-909.   DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2023)-06-0897
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Based on the daily meteorological drought composite index (MCI) of 83 national meteorological stations in Guizhou from January 1981 to March 2023 and historical drought disaster data, this paper firstly analyzes the applicability of MCI in Guizhou from the aspects of drought process evolution characteristics, unreasonable jumping numbers, and correlation with drought disaster situations, and further reveals the spatial-temporal distribution and change rule of drought and the impact of ENSO events on drought in Guizhou. The results show that the MCI has good applicability in Guizhou. The northwest, northern and southern of Guizhou are drought-prone areas, and the annual drought days are more than 40 days, while in the southeast, southwest and central areas drought days are relatively few. There is a heavy spring drought in the west and a heavy summer drought in the east of Guizhou. From 1981 to 2022, the average annual drought days and drought intensity in Guizhou showed an overall increasing trend, with a significant increase in the western region and a decreasing trend in the eastern region. The drought intensity in autumn and winter showed an increasing trend and in autumn the trend was most obvious, while in spring and summer it showed a weakening trend. From 1981 to 2022, Guizhou Province experienced a total of 3 extremely strong regional drought processes, 9 strong regional drought processes, 17 stronger regional drought processes, and 27 general regional drought processes. The duration, average intensity, average affected area and comprehensive intensity index of regional drought processes all fluctuated greatly, and showing a weak increasing trend. The evolution pattern of drought affected area and drought intensity in Guizhou and its nine regions from 1981 to 2022 is basically consistent, and the overall trend showed a stage change of high-low-high-low.There is a high possibility of excessive summer precipitation in Guizhou in El Ni ño decaying years, while there is a high possibility of insufficient summer precipitation in Guizhou in La Ni ña decaying years.
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